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# Navigating Capital Markets with Human Intuition and Machine-Driven Technology Solutions

**The foundation of our investment research lies in six core analysis methods:**

Market Sentiment

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Trend-Following

|

Seasonality

|

Macroeconomic Conditions

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Price Patterns

|

Market Breadth

Plans & Pricing

Free Newsletter

## Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence
##### Dumb Money Confidence is ... and Smart Money Confidence is ....

Last update date:

S&P 500 ()

SMART MONEY ()

DUMB MONEY()

## S&P 500 monthly statistics - November
##### Average return and percent positive of all trading days in the current month historically for S&P 500.

## Similar Weeks in S&P 500 10-Year History
##### An analysis of the S&P 500 returns following historical patterns that are highly correlated with the last five-trading-day trend of the S&P 500. There are 0 patterns with a 95% similarity over the past decade.

Last update date:

S&P 500 ()

Performances after signal

1 Week \[%\]

2 Weeks \[%\]

1 Month \[%\]

2 Months \[%\]

3 Months \[%\]

6 Months \[%\]

1 Year \[%\]

## top stock trend score

The **Absolute** and **Relative Trend Score Indicators** use a weight of the evidence framework by aggregating ten trend-following indicators to deliver a comprehensive composite score for trend evaluation. Scores range from 0 (weakest) to 10 (strongest).

- The Absolute Trend Score evaluates the strength of an asset’s individual trendThe Relative Trend Score gahe Absolute Trend Score evaluates the strength of an asset’s individual trend.
- The Relative Trend Score gauges the strength of an asset's trend in comparison to the S&P 500, offering a view of its performance against the broader market.

###### Composite Trend Model Scoring Methodology

0 (Weakest) to 10 (Strongest)

###### Trend Score Condition
###### Relative Trend Score Conditions

Close > 50-Day Average = +1

Ratio > 50-Day Average Ratio = +1

Close > 100-Day Average = +1

Ratio > 100-Day Average Ratio = +1

Close > 200-Day Average = +1

Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1

50-Day Average Rising = +1

50-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1

100-Day Average Rising = +1

100-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1

200-Day Average Rising = +1

200-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1

50-Day Average > 100-Day Average = +1

50-Day Average Ratio > 100-Day Average Ratio = +1

50-Day Average > 200-Day Average = +1

50-Day Average Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1

100-Day Average > 200-Day Average = +1

100-Day Average Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1

Close above 63-Day High +1 until Close Below 63-Day Low

Ratio above 63-Day High Ratio +1 until Ratio Below 63-Day Low Ratio

##### The Absolute and Relative Trend Scores aggregate ten indicators into a composite score (0 to 10) to evaluate an asset’s individual trend strength or its performance relative to the S&P 500.

Last update date:

Stock Symbol

Trend Score

Relative Trend Score

\# Days >= 8

Days with trend score ≥ 8

## Macroeconomic Conditions

**Macro Index Model**: The U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy generally move in the same direction over the long term. However, significant declines of 30% or more in the stock market are often contextualized by macroeconomic deterioration. While macroeconomic conditions do not always deteriorate before a 30% decline begins, the bulk of such declines typically occur after significant macroeconomic deterioration has taken differentiate between temporary economic slowdowns and genuine macroeconomic issues, we have developed the Macro Index, which synthesizes 11 diverse economic indicators to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of the U.S. economy. These indicators include:

- New Home Sales
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- Initial Claims
- Continued Claims
- Heavy Truck Sales
- 10 year – 3 month Treasury yield curve
- S&P 500 vs. its 10 month moving average
- ISM manufacturing PMI
- Margin debt
- Year-over-year headline inflation

**Bear Market Probability Model**: This is a model outlined by Goldman Sachs using five fundamental inputs - the U.S. Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing Index, Yield Curve, Inflation Rate, and P/E Ratio. Each month's reading is ranked versus all other historical readings and assigned a score. The higher the score, the higher the probability of a bear market in the months ahead. As outlined in a report from September 5, 2018 (see the archives), when the model was 20% - 29%, the S&P's average one-year return was +21%. But when the model was 80% - 89%, that average return plunged to -2%. So the higher the model, the greater the chance for a bear market, or at least negative forward returns.

##### This section features two key indicators that assess the U.S. economy's current state and stock market risks, offering insights into macroeconomic trends and investment implications.

Last update date:

S&P 500 ()

Macro Index Model ()

Bear Market Probability Model()

## SPY One Month New High and New Low %

**SPY 4 week high %**: This shows the percentage of stocks in the named exchange-traded fund (ETF) that are currently trading at a 4-week high. This is a breadth figure, so we can see the participation among members of the fund. Oftentimes at turning points, the underlying breadth will diverge positively (at bottoms) or negatively (at tops) from the index. It is also useful to monitor extremes in the breadth figures. When so many components of an index are doing well or poorly, we usually see the index make a counter move in the days, weeks or months following the extreme.

**SPY 4 week low %**: This shows the percentage of stocks in the named exchange-traded fund (ETF) that are currently trading at a 4-week low This is a breadth figure, so we can see the participation among members of the fund. Oftentimes at turning points, the underlying breadth will diverge positively (at bottoms) or negatively (at tops) from the index. It is also useful to monitor extremes in the breadth figures. When so many components of an index are doing well or poorly, we usually see the index make a counter move in the days, weeks or months following the extreme.

##### This section shows two key indicators for the S&P 500 (via SPY ETF) tracking the percentage of stocks at four-week highs or lows. They help assess market breadth and potential turning points.

Last update date:

SPY ()

SPY 4 week high % ()

SPY 4 week low %()

SMART MONEY / DUMB MONEY CONFIDENCE

S&P 500 monthly statistics - November

Similar Weeks in S&P 500 10-Year History

top stock trend score

Macroeconomic Conditions

SPY One Month New High and New Low %

Founded in 2001, Sentimentrader is an independent investment research firm that blends qualitative insights from decades of market analysis with a quantitative approach enhanced by machine-driven technology solutions.

# Our Process:

**Raw data** is meticulously collected and processed to provide data source for our extensive suite of **2800+  classic and proprietary indicators and charts**. Leveraging our sophisticated, **proprietary backtesting engine**, our seasoned analysts uncover extreme signals within these indicators. These machine-generated findings lay the groundwork for our **technology-driven**

product line: **PortfolioEdge, the AI Stock Scanner, Index Trading Strategies,** and comprehensive **market reports.**

But that's not all – we go beyond. We make our indicators and backtesting engine **tools** available to subscribers, empowering them to derive their own distinct market perspectives.

## Why SentimenTrader is Your Best Choice?

**Full-Suite Integration
‍**Everything investors need, from market insight to strategy testing, and alerts in one platform.

**Professional Intelligence Made Accessible
‍**Institutional-grade quantitative insight presented with clarity, simplicity, and usability for every investor.

**Empowered Independence
‍**Tools, reports, and education that help investors think and act with confidence.

**Human Support and Education
‍**Personalized guidance through concierge assistance, one-on-one technical meetings, and webinars. We offer independence with support.

**Proven Credibility and Data Integrity
**Nearly 25 years of trust in financial research, built on data that extends as far back as reliable market records exist.

Liz Ann Sonders

Chief Investment Strategist

{SentimenTrader.com’s Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence} is one of my favorite sentiment indexes…

Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Stuart Walton

General Partner

Hands down the best value on the Street…thanks for making my job easier. Really like your style and your service.

Trek Capital Mgmt., LLC

Dr. Brett Steenbarger

Psychologist and Author

Other sites that I find helpful for putting data together into a big picture view include…SentimenTrader. Lots of good…indicators are followed on the site.

brettsteenbarger.com

Dan Fitzpatrick

Founder

SentimenTrader is a unique and very valuable resource that I use to help me get a handle on what’s really going on.

Stock Market Mentor

Todd Harrison

Founder and CEO

I’ve never seen such a unique and skilled approach to sentiment and its financial applications.

Minyanville

Jeffrey Saut

Chief Investment Strategist

SentimenTrader.com is an always insightful website.

Raymond James

Larry Williams

Trader and Author

Awesome work…

ireallytrade.com

Don Hays

President

If you are really into a huge and broad examination of a very wide and divergent array of market analysis...I would suggest that you try this service in your personal repertoire.

Hays Advisory Group

Traders-mag.com

Finally there is a website where sentiment data is taken seriously and presented thoroughly and concisely. This is no doubt the most complete and accurate collection of sentiment data on the web.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Founder and Editor

I highly recommend SentimenTrader.com. I personally subscribe to it, and have for years.

True Wealth, Daily Wealth, Sjuggerud Confidential

Liz Ann Sonders

Chief Investment Strategist

{SentimenTrader.com’s Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence} is one of my favorite sentiment indexes…

Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Stuart Walton

General Partner

Hands down the best value on the Street…thanks for making my job easier. Really like your style and your service.

Trek Capital Mgmt., LLC

Dr. Brett Steenbarger

Psychologist and Author

Other sites that I find helpful for putting data together into a big picture view include…SentimenTrader. Lots of good…indicators are followed on the site.

brettsteenbarger.com

Dan Fitzpatrick

Founder

SentimenTrader is a unique and very valuable resource that I use to help me get a handle on what’s really going on.

Stock Market Mentor

Todd Harrison

Founder and CEO

I’ve never seen such a unique and skilled approach to sentiment and its financial applications.

Minyanville

Jeffrey Saut

Chief Investment Strategist

SentimenTrader.com is an always insightful website.

Raymond James

Larry Williams

Trader and Author

Awesome work…

ireallytrade.com

Don Hays

President

If you are really into a huge and broad examination of a very wide and divergent array of market analysis...I would suggest that you try this service in your personal repertoire.

Hays Advisory Group

Traders-mag.com

Finally there is a website where sentiment data is taken seriously and presented thoroughly and concisely. This is no doubt the most complete and accurate collection of sentiment data on the web.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Founder and Editor

I highly recommend SentimenTrader.com. I personally subscribe to it, and have for years.

True Wealth, Daily Wealth, Sjuggerud Confidential

Jared Dillian

Former head of ETF trading at Lehman, Publisher of Daily Dirtnap, author of Street Freak and 10th Man

SentimenTrader does some good work.

Art Cashin

Director of Floor Operations

Sharp-eyed...a dispassionate and respected market veteran.

Josh Brown

Chief Executive Officer

SentimenTrader is pretty influential among people who watch things like market internals.

Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC

JC Parets, CMT

Founder

Sentiment is one of the most important tools we have as technicians. There is a lot of data out there and I think SentimenTrader does the best job of compiling it all and making it available for both professional and retail investors.

All Star Charts

Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Portfolio Manager & Founder

Through my studying for the Chartered Market Technician designation I learned more of the importance of sentiment data. SentimenTrader is the gold-standard in my opinion for curating all that is sentiment, from surveys, to fund flows, to proprietary data sets, to COT data, they have it all. Each morning I make a point to read their daily newsletter and often learn something new about a market move I wouldn’t have been able to read about anywhere else.

Thrasher Analytics

Bill Fleckenstein

Fleckenstein Capital

SentimenTrader’s unique blend of daily market analysis and historical precedent provides readers with a balanced technical view of the market at a very fair price.

Fleckenstein Capital

Napatree Capital

We’ve been subscribing to SentimenTrader for many years. The SentimenTrader team do a great job of disseminating investor behavior.

Tony Dwyer

U.S. Portfolio Strategist

Without question, SentimenTrader.com is the best value on the web. SentimenTrader’s analysis enables traders/investors to understand and take advantage of stock market behavior.

Canaccord Genuity

Dr. Alexander Elder

Author, Trading for a Living

SentimenTrader is a hard worker, always looking for new angles from which to read the mass mind. If you are interested in how mass psychology affects the markets and the signals it generates, I suggest you follow the link below. Needless to say, I receive zero compensation for this recommendation — I mention this only as a service to you.

spiketrade.com

Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager

I believe that SentimenTrader is one of the best analytical tools out there, giving traders a genuine edge in today’s uncertain markets. SentimenTrader provides a full list of sentiment and breadth indicators along with instructions for their interpretation. It also sends subscribers a daily emailed newsletter that I consider worth the subscription cost by itself.

ValueTrend Wealth Management

Fari Hamzei

Founder

SentimenTrader's daily report is in a class by itself. Over the years, the data and analysis provided by this publication have proved insightful to me in my own analysis of the market — helping me maintain my top ranking nationally as a market timer with Timer Digest. This is the first time I have endorsed a market letter, and I am pleased to do so.

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Gary B. Smith

Fox News Contributor and Hedge Fund Manager

SentimenTrader is a master at looking at data to see if it has any usefulness in predicting future market moves.

brettsteenbarger.com

Barry Ritholtz

co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC

We need to find more objective ways to view and measure sentiment. That is why I find SentimenTrader website so intriguing. It follows an extraordinary number of indicators that track investor sentiment.

Walter Deemer

Founding member of CMT Association

If you want all the sentiment indicators monitored for you, SentimenTrader is the place to go.

Author of Deemer on Technical Analysis

Adam Koós

RIA Wealth Management Advisor

I've been using SentimenTrader for years... YEARS. I analyze a plethora of charts on a weekly basis, but I don't have the time to crunch data in the way they do, which also happens to be in a manner that is both informative and make sense. I've unsubscribed from several resources over the years, but I can never bring myself to turn off the switch on ST. There's just too much value for the cost.

Client Prior to 2018

Paul C

Asset Management Consulting

SentimenTrader is a fantastic resource for traders. Researched and written by professionals with distinct and complementary views of the market, it provides not only timely information on the state of various markets but also a plethora of tools, indicators, and strategies to dig as deep as you want. Highly recommended.

Client Since 2020

Bruno Estier

Financial Market Technical Analyst

Very good analysis.

Client Prior to 2018

Simon Maierhofer

Financial Newsletter Writer

SentimenTrader has set the standard for a fact-based approach to investing.

Client Prior to 2018

Elliott Wave Principal

...SentimenTrader is a great resource that gives me a comprehensive take on the status of market sentiment at any point in time.

Client Prior to 2018

Ziad N

Hedge Fund Trader

A lot of stock market myths have been dispelled thanks to SentimenTrader!

Client Prior to 2018

Stephen Shipman

Long/Short Institutional Investor

Having been an institutional investor for forty years, I know that SentimenTrader.com is THE essential sentiment tool to have in your toolbox.

Client Prior to 2018

Peter Nitsche

I appreciate the richness of data provided.

Client Prior to 2018

Christopher E

Professional Trader

I have been a subscriber to SentimenTrader for many, many years. I thoroughly recommend the service to any trader.

Client Prior to 2012

Professional Trader

Professional Trader

Sentiment, hedgers data, and seasonality are absolute essentials for any serious analysts or professional traders out there, in my humble view.

Client Prior to 2018

Casual Retail Trader

As a long time SentimenTrader subscriber, I really find value in your service. Your insights are unique and timely.

Client Prior to 2018

William S

Retired CIO

Excellent, balanced research product.

Client Prior to 2018

Frank C

Casual Retail Trader

Very easy-to-use, informative research tool. I would not want to manage my portfolio without the tools and research provided.

Client Prior to 2018

Serious Retail Investor

Worth every penny. Provides insights into sector and market direction.

Client Prior to 2018

Douglas D

Casual Retail Trader

These guys will keep you on the right side of the market. All data, no emotions or BS. The research they provide has helped alleviate the fear and anxiety that come with trading and investing.

Client Since 2019

Aongus F

Non-Casual Retail Investor

Brilliant, pertinent information on what's going on in the markets. Helps with the big picture. Thank you.

Client Since 2019

Casual Retail Trader

I read SentimenTrader every day; and always check in before making any investment decision.

Client Since 2020

Professional Trader

SentimenTrader provides a large amount of high-quality reports and tools, as well as data, which are especially helpful for people who manage funds and conduct economic research.

Client Since 2020

Paulo S

Professional Trader

The research provided is fantastic, actionable, and forward-looking. I am still learning to take advantage of all the recent new functions added to the platform.

Client Since 2020

Sebastian M

Wirehouse Financial Advisor

There is a tremendous amount of value in the research reports alone, not to mention the website!

Client Since 2020

William L

Casual Retail Trader

Top-notch site. Really insightful with cutting-edge and objective analysis.

Client Since 2021

David Brown

Casual Retail Trader

SentimenTrader is my favorite subscription. It has had a huge positive impact on my investing methods.

Client Since 2021

Evert B

Casual Retail Trader

Love SentimenTrader, educational and informative of current trends. A pragmatic approach to markets from which I have learned much.

Client Since 2021

Professional Trader

You provide a great service to traders - lots of trading ideas with statistical rigor to back them up.

Client Since 2021

Jonathan T

Casual Retail Trader

I have been a member of SentimenTrader for almost a year. I find the service to be of great value, and it has really helped me take the emotion out of my trading.

Client Since 2023

Robert B

Casual Retail Trader

SentimenTrader research reports are invaluable to me, keeping me on the right side of the market while swing trading around a 9-5 day job! Amazing tool, especially for traders/investors with limited time to research the markets!

Client Since 2023

Guy P

Serious Retail Investor

Since subscribing to SentimenTrader, I have become less prone to making rash decisions with my investments. The wealth of information helps me get a better overview of the current market situation.

Client Since 2023

Casual Retail Trader

Thanks for the service. I appreciate learning from all three analysts as I lack experience and dedication. Thanks!

Client Since 2024

Phelps Salter

Retired RIA

In my fifty-year professional career in the investment business (stockbroker, trust investment officer, and the last forty years as a Registered Investment Adviser), I have always placed investor sentiment very high in my decision-making process. SentimenTrader fits the bill perfectly! Thank you for producing such a valuable investment service; keep up your great work.

Client Prior to 2018

Michael Dollar

CIO

I have used SentimenTrader for a very long time. SentimenTrader's work in 2009 helped our performance tremendously.

Client Prior to 2018

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**Risk Disclosure:** Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

**Hypothetical Performance Disclosure:** Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

**Testimonial Disclosure:** Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.